Uncertainty

Uncertainty

The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics

Briggs, William

Springer International Publishing AG

05/2018

258

Mole

Inglês

9783319819587

15 a 20 dias

Descrição não disponível.
1. Truth, Argument, Realism 1.1. Truth 1.2. Realism 1.3. Epistemology 1.4. Necessary & Conditional Truth 1.5. Science & Scientism 1.6. Faith 1.7. Belief & Knowlege 2. Logic 2.1. Language 2.2. Logic Is Not Empirical 2.3. Syllogistic Logic 2.4. Syllogisms 2.5. Informality 2.6. Fallacy 3. Induction and Intellection 3.1. Metaphysics 3.2. Types of Induction 3.3. Grue 4. What Probability Is 4.1. Probability Is Conditional 4.2. Relevance 4.3. The Proportional Syllogism 4.4. Details 4.5. Assigning Probability 4.6. Weight of Probability 4.7. Probability Usually Is Not a Number 4.8. Probability Can Be a Number 5. What Probability Is Not 5.1. Probability Is Not Physical 5.2. Probability & Essence 5.3. Probability Is Not Subjective 5.4. Probability Is Not Only Relative Frequency 5.5. Probability Is Not Always a Number Redux 6. Chance and Randomness 6.1. Randomness 6.2. Not a Cause 6.3. Experimental Design & Randomization 6.4. Nothing Is Distributed 6.5. Quantum Mechanics 6.6. Simulations 6.7. Truly Random & Information Theory 7. Causality 7.1. What Is Cause Like? 7.2. Causal Models 7.3. Paths 7.4. Once a Cause, Always a Cause 7.5. Falsifiability 7.6. Explanation 7.7. Under-Determination 8. Probability Models 8.1. Model Form 8.2. Relevance & Importance 8.3. Independence versus Irrelevance 8.4. Bayes 8.5. The Problem and Origin of Parameters 8.6. Exchangeability and Parameters 8.7. Mystery of Parameters 9. Statistical and Physical Models < 9.1. The Idea 9.2. The Best Model 9.3. Second-Best Models 9.4. Relevance and Importance 9.5. Measurement 9.6. Hypothesis Testing 9.7. Die, P-Value, Die, Die, Die 9.8. Implementing Statistical Models 9.9. Model Goodness 9.10. Decisions 10. Modeling Goals, Strategies, and Mistakes 10.1. Regression 10.2. Risk 10.3. Epidemiologist Fallacy 10.4. Quantifying the Unquantifiable 10.5. Time Series 10.6. The Future
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